A recent article from Chuck Brooks caught my eye. Brooks is the President of Brooks Consulting International, and a globally recognized thought leader and subject matter expert in Cybersecurity and Emerging Technologies. He talks about grey swans.

So, what is a grey swan? Well, according to Wikipedia:

“A grey swan is an event that is known and possible to happen, but which is assumed to be unlikely to occur. The term derives from the black swan theory, which describes an event which is unlikely but unknown.”

Many people think of the COVID-19 pandemic as a black swan event. It was not. A black swan event is the term for an unpredictable, rare, catastrophic event, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined in his best-selling 2007 book, The Black Swan.

The COVID-19 pandemic was not rare, nor was it catastrophic. Pandemics have been a part of human history from its beginning, and several have caused much more damage. There have been 7,033,430 confirmed COVID-19-induced deaths as of March 2024. The HIV/AIDS pandemic death toll stands at 36 million, and the Bubonic plague at 15 million. The worldwide 1918 influenza pandemic may have killed up to 100 million people.

Why am I sharing this data? Because Chuck Brooks’ article explores the other grey swans that we may face.

The next big disruption

I start many of my keynote presentations by describing change as a wave - a very large wave. It comes at us, and if we are standing still, it hits us. Bang! It knocks us over and drags us in its wake until it has moved on, and we are left gasping for air.

Then the next wave of change comes along, hits us, and we are hanging on for survival. This is the nature of change today, and we cannot stand still and let it knock us down. In the words of Lauren Bacall, “Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing world.”

But what if, instead of standing still and getting hit by change, we are prepared? Like surfboarders, we climb on top of the wave and ride it out until it runs out of steam. Then, we curl off and prepare for the next change.

Change can come out of nowhere, just like the pandemic did. The next big disruption is right around the corner, but we don't know what it will look like, and we won’t see it coming.

When you can’t see it coming, how do you prepare?

You prepare by being resilient in the face of uncertain, disruptive and volatile change. I will explore how you do that in a moment, but I want to return to Chuck Brooks article and extract what he believes the next big disruptions may be – the next grey swans.

The next grey swans

The malevolent artificial intelligence grey swan

“Currently, AI can produce, ingest, and analyze data that can reproduce the human mind at a basic level. But down the road, artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize cognitive capacities impacting every industry. AI is going to change how we do business, how we plan, how we design, and how we safely live.”

As AI advances, we are going to build super intelligent robots that can think and act.

However, what if we lose control and AI goes crazy? What if it emulates the sentient computer HAL from the science fiction film 2001: A Space Odyssey, who becomes envious and ends up killing? It is within the realm of possibilities.

Critical infrastructure and the grid grey swan

The grid is a vital infrastructure made up of a network of power plants connected by thousands of power-generating units, transformer power substations, and miles of transmission lines. And, it is often old.

Three grey swans could affect the grid: cyber threats, solar flares, and electromagnetic pulses (EMP).

Cyberspace

Most essential infrastructure components of energy grids in many countries now function as an internet-accessible digital environment. The expanding number of networked sensors and trends towards hardware and software integration are redefining hackers' surface attack opportunities.
We have already witnessed cyberattacks on refineries, dams, and data centres. Threats have also targeted government agencies, as well as the energy, water, aviation, nuclear, and critical manufacturing sectors.

Geomagnetic storms and solar flares

Over a hundred solar flares are thought to have struck Earth in the last several years. A major solar flare may cause up to $2 trillion in damage and disrupt the grid. It could take 4-10 years for the system to recover fully. CIA Director Jim Woolsey believes that a rare geometric superstorm would destroy vital infrastructures that support life on Earth, including electric grids, endangering millions of lives.

Electromagnetic pulses (EMP)

EMPs are energy pulses that can be released from nuclear weapons explosions and portable electronics such as high-power microwave weapons (HPMWs).

According to a 2018 Air Force study, an enemy EMP weapon attack might wipe out our way of life and force millions of people to flee.

The late Dr Peter Prye, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and a member of the Congressional EMP Commission, said that a natural or nuclear EMP disaster could collapse all the other critical infrastructures - communication, transportation, banking and finance, food, and water.

Bioterrorism and pandemic grey swan

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the weaknesses and latency periods involved in controlling an unidentified worldwide viral outbreak.

Researchers discovered in the study “Global Trends 2030” that “nobody can predict which pathogen will start spreading to humans next, or when or where such a development will occur."

The study states:

“An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months.”

There is also a growing likelihood of a bioterrorist attack as the proliferation of biotechnology, along with the increasing use of technology by terrorists, grows.

Extraterrestrial visitors

It is likely that we are not alone in the universe. There are 500 billion stars in our cosmos, similar to our own, and NASA estimations conclude that there are more than 100 billion Earth-like planets.

The number of planets outside the Milky Way that might harbour life as we know it is astounding.

According to astronomers from the University of Auckland, The Milky Way is thought to contain about 100 billion liveable planets similar to Earth.

“Approximately 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (5×1022) liveable planets, or 50 sextillions, are estimated to exist in the cosmos when multiplied by more than 500 billion galaxies. That estimate would obviously increase dramatically if life on Earth were to evolve outside of Earth's ecosystems.”

We must ask ourselves if one or more of these likely civilisations will visit Earth if they are not already doing so.

How would we react? What would change in us? What would be the psychological shock? What would be the impact on our philosophical and spiritual beliefs?

Around the corner

The good news is that we are not totally blind to the next big disruption that may be around the corner. We know the grey swans that are possible. We may be able to predict the scenarios but not optimally control them.

But what about the black swan? The occurrence that is an outlier. – it deviates from accepted wisdom. Black swans are unanticipated and uncommon and can result from geopolitical, economic, or other unanticipated occurrences.

Be prepared

You prepare by being resilient in the face of uncertain, disruptive and volatile change. Now, the change may not be as big as a grey or black swan, but it could still be disruptive and, just like that wave, knock you over when you were standing still.

Back in 2020, I published two books, Unleash the Resiliator Within: Resilience – A Handbook for Individuals and Unleash the Resiliator Within: Resilience – A Handbook for Leaders.

The books were motivated by the recognition that many organisations were taking a one-size-fits-all approach to building resilience in the workforce and caring for their employees' mental health.

There was also a lack of action to remove the stigma of mental health in the workplace. This means that however many resources you put in place to help employees through disruptive change, they will not use them due to the prevailing stigma in the workplace.

Wayahead recently conducted a survey across 2000 Australians, half with lived experience of mental health and half without. Of those with lived experience, 38% say they have experienced unfair treatment in their workplace, while 53% say stigma is most prevalent in the workplace. It also found that almost 7 in 10 Australians are hiding mental illness from their employer.

Only 7% felt workplaces always provided a safe environment for people experiencing mental health issues to feel open and safe about asking for help.

The Resiliator has 20 superpowers for individuals and 20 for leaders. Watch the video.

Each superpower addresses a specific context in which you may find yourself. I do not have the real estate to walk you through each of the 20 superpowers, so let’s take the COVID-19 grey swan, some of the challenges you may have faced, and ten superpowers for individuals that would have helped.

Leaders also faced challenges from this grey swan. These are ten superpowers that would have helped you look after your employees.

Resilience is not built on a gym subscription or mindfulness on a Monday. It must be intentional and contextual, meeting the individual's needs and challenges at any given time.

The bottom line

The fact is that we do not know what the next disruption will be or when it will happen.

We do not know what the continuing barrage of constant and complex change will look like.

We do not know when the next wave of change will hit us and try to knock us down.

We can be prepared. We can be resilient.

Be ready for the next grey swan